Last night was a little dicey for my tastes.  I will save you the suspense, I still traded and made a profit.  Unlike most days, I didn’t like the way this one played out.  Since I am usually only looking for 2-5 pip gains, I don’t like when trades work against me more than 5 pips.  Most nights I would bail on a trade that went against me because the charts stop lining up and things start looking screwy.  Last night I actually stayed in the trade even when it was against me by 9 pips!  The movements were very jerky and the EUR/USD looked like it didn’t know what it wanted.  I felt that I would get a crack at a positive trade and stayed in until my low goal of 2 pips hit off.  I immediately walked away and was rewarded with a slip in my favor of an extra pip.  The trade actually went positive for me earlier but it wasn’t long enough for me to exit.  All in all this was juts a weird trade.  I think I may have been more lucky than good.  I guess my discipline allowed me to get out without getting greedy!  As you can see by the chart, if I had stayed in I most likely would have hit my limit and walked away with a fairly large loss.  I think the problem here was entry timing.  I really should have been more patient.  My upper barrier proved weak, but I didn’t give the market enough time to prove that for me.  My trades don’t usually take 27 minutes like this one did.  Tomorrow I will get a chance to do things right!  Here are the details…

Trade Summary:

Sell EUR/USD - 1.2576
Close Trade - 1.2573
Pips=3

Well this worked out nicely.  I just finished explaining my thoughts on Forex and now I have a trade to show you from yesterday evening.  I am especially proud of this trade because the EUR/USD was pushing down all freakin day.  That made it tough to find a range to work in.  I finally found a lower barrier that I could work with and I waited patiently for a buy trade entry.  A buy trade in these conditions can be very dangerous, so you need to get out quickly when things go bad.  This is another example of strong support from my correlating currencies.  The USD/CHF was tipping me off to a little upward swing.  I got into the buy at 7:25pm.  This one fluttered around for a long time.  I got a little nervous and thought about bailing when I was at zero and could have walked away with no loss.  The USD/CHF kept me thinking I could at least bag 2 pips from this movement.  So, I waited.  Finally at 7:33pm I caught a little movement and walked away with 3 pips.  Not bad at all.  Remember what I wrote about trade exits?  See, I am still learning.  I almost walked away from a nice profit.  The reason I didn’t is that I had confidence in my reasons for entry and nothing changed in the charts to make me think this was no longer a good trade.  Gotta have faith in your system!

Trade Summary:

Buy EUR/USD - 1.2674
Close Trade - 1.2677
Pips=3

As I think about developing a strategy guide to outline exactly what my trading strategy is, I often think about what got me into this whole Forex world.  Like most of you traders out there, there are quite a few reasons that all came together.  The first major reason was that I wanted money.  I wanted lots of it.  And, I didn’t want to do anything to earn it.  Unfortunately I learned that was pretty much impossible and anyone selling that idea is only padding their accounts and not yours.  The other major reason was that I always had an interest in the stock market and wanted a chance to apply some of that knowledge.  So I was turned on to Forex.  This was like a dream come true.  Forex has a ton of retail brokers, low deposit requirements and a market that is liquid for most of the day.  My problem was that I had no freaking idea what I was getting in to.  Over the next year or so I soaked up a ton of info by buying ebooks that promised to make me $3,243,564.00 a year.  After reading most of that crap I learned almost nothing.  I did get into some more expensive courses from some other pros.  Some I liked.  Some I didn’t.  All of this and my trading experiences lead me to break out of the mold of my mentors and forge my own strategy.  As you can tell from my charts, there really isn’t much going on.  My theory is that the market is so much bigger than I am so 4 million indicators on my screen still only leads me to an educated guess.  The key is to find very simple signs that a currency will be moving in a direction and then knowing when to get out.  Trust me when I tell you this, the very last thing you will ever learn is when to exit a trade.  That is something I am still working on to this day.  It all seems so easy when you use fake money in a demo account.  When it comes to your actual dollars, your emotions will get the better of you from time to time.  Anyways, back to the reason I posted all this.  I don’t want people to waste their money on the crap people push out there.  Sure, Forex robots sound great…but you really should know how to trade on your own so that a robot can augment your trading.  Nothing comes without a little work.  Take the time to learn Forex and it will be worth it.  You wouldn’t trust a doctor who completed med school over night, so don’t think you can become a trading expert because you read an ebook.  You really should ignore the crap and start your training over at Baby Pips.  This site is free and loaded full of awesome information.  They have a link on the main site called “school” that starts you off in Forex kindergarten and takes you right to college.  Did I mention this is free?  Honestly, 99% of the ebooks and courses about Forex that cost a fortune don’t give half the information that Baby Pips is giving you for free!  From there it is all about finding a trading style that you are comfortable with.  Some people like to carry large trades.  Not me.  I am in and out in moments and am happy as a pig in shit when I have 2 pips.  Compare as many strategies as you can.  Try them in demo accounts.  After time you will find the one that fits you best.  Once you have that one it is time to go live and put the pressure on.  Even if you only risk a dollar a trade you need to know what it feels like to use live money.  From there you need to constantly re-evaluate.  The markets will change.  Your life will change!  I changed jobs and trading in the morning no longer worked for me.  I shifted my strategy to something that works in the evenings.  One thing is certain, you should never stop learning.  People who became complacent are the same idiots that sank the stock market.  Hehehe…I probably shouldn’t get into a rant about that.  I am definitely trying to have some kind of Forex strategy guide out mid year.  How much will this valuable information cost you?  Absolutely nothing.  And, it certainly should not be your bible.  It should only help to form your own strategy.  That’s how this game works.  That’s what separates the people who will make a killing in Forex, and the dreamers that will never achieve a thing.

Sorry for the very late post today.  Considering how busy I am this week, I am shocked that I was able to get a trade in.  I have tests and mid-terms in pretty much every class of my firefighter pre-service program.  On top of that I also have a presentation due.  But, I am still a trader.  I came home around 8pm tonight and just fired up the charts to see what was going on.  This trade is actually pretty interesting.  My reason for entry wasn’t based on the current movement of the EUR/USD.  I was watching one of my correlating pairs, the USD/CHF, and noticed my lower barrier was holding strong.  I predicted an upward movement in that currency.  Since that pair usually does the opposite of the EUR/USD, I got into a sell trade at 8:30pm.  I don’t trade the USD/CHF because the spread sucks compared to the Euro.  As I suspected, the Euro then ignored it’s upward movement and dropped slightly.  I walked away when I was up 3 pips but it slipped down to about 2.5 pips at 8:31pm.  I will call it 2 pips because I like to round down.  I was a little upset with my exit on this trade.  I really had nothing to signal an exit but I got out just because I really wanted to be able to show you all this type of trade.  As I say, I could teach you all to do this better than I actually do!  Below are the two charts I really made use of on this trade.  You can see that I don’t have fancy looking indicators or anything like that.  You can have all that crap on your screen and still have no idea how to win a trade.  I keep my tools and rules simple.  My gains aren’t huge but I don’t lose too often!  When you don’t have much in the way of draw downs you can risk large amounts on your trades.  I won’t tell you how much I made on this trade…but if I had a $100,000 account then this trade would have bagged me about $1,100.  That’s over a grand in just one minute!  Don’t let people tell you that it is all about the pips.  That’s bullshit.  What good is gaining 50 pips a trade when your win percentage is only 60% and your losers hit you for 100 pips?  That type of trading pimp-slaps your account.  My style of trading may only get me 20-50 pips in a month but I don’t fear those large losses.  As a result I can weight my trades very heavily.  That’s what makes my trading strategy very different from anyone else.  This also makes my strategy very safe!

Trade Summary:

Sell EUR/USD - 1.2604
Close Trade - 1.2602
Pips= 2

*here is the screen shot from the actual trade on the EUR/USD

*this is the USD/CHF which actually lef me to the trade

For a lot of you today is President’s day.  For some of you north of the border, like me, you are enjoying Family day.  And for the rest of you suckers, today is Monday.  In light of those holidays I probably won’t be trading today.  Something will have to look really good to me later in the evening to convince me to trade.  So, in my effort to continue to add value to your visits, I bring you a good dose of religion.  This comic is courtesy of Sinfest.  This strip caused my first visit to Sinfest and I was very pleased to find some hilarious comics in their archives!  There is always something to be gained by not trading.  You obviously gain a lack of exposure to loss.  You can’t lose anything when you don’t trade.  And, when you consider what happened to the market, a 0% loss would have looked good for most of us.  For me, I gain time to find hilarious things on the Internet.  If I am not going to make money, I might as well find something to laugh at!  Enjoy.

Last night I had a nice little trade that I am very pleased with.  The reason I am so pleased is that I was so confident in my lower barrier that I got into a buy trade even though the Euro was coming off a low candle.  This one was very much momentum based.  And I mean that in every way.  I had just fired up the charts when I smelled the trade.  I very quickly did some checks and then got into the buy at 7:06pm.  Shortly after 7:08pm the EUR/USD went in my direction and I closed out with 3 pips.  Now, I only had a two pip target on this trade because I was working between a very small set of barriers.  We are only talking about 20 pips here.  So, I wanted to safe within that area.  Keep in mind that the spread was around 2 pips, so my trade actually had to move more than just the 3 pips I gained.  That’s how it works!  The EUR/USD rose a bit more after my trade but what the hell do I care.  I weighted this trade pretty heavy anyways so I made a tidy profit.  Funny how things work out.  I managed to get only 4 pips in January and the first trade of February gets me 3.  Hopefully I can get more out of this month.  I do have a million things to do for school, especially when you consider time at the gym.  Many days I can only look at the charts for an hour or so before I have to leave.  If things don’t line up properly then I just walk away.  You will never catch me trading just for the sake of trading.  I would rather finish the year having gained only 50 pips than break my rules.  My rules keep me in the black while most everyone else in the investment world lost money!  Here are the details of this trade.

Trade Summary:

Buy EUR/USD - 1.2813
Close Trade - 1.2816
Pips= 3

I made a bad trade yesterday that ended up working out for me.  Funny how that works out sometimes.  I still made money.  And, had I stayed in the trade, I would have made even more.  But it would a horrible mistake to write it up as if it worked out according to plan.  I think part of the problem I am having is the fact that I just don’t trade that often.  I spend most of my day between school and the gym.  I hardly even see my bulldog anymore!  On to my trade.  I actually got home pretty early and decided to give a quick shot at a late afternoon trade.  I know I was a little extra jumpy because this is not a time I am used to trading.  I saw a chance for a buy trade in the EUR/USD.  This was based heavily on some correlating currencies.  When some other currency pairs see some action, it has it’s affect on the EUR/USD.  So, I got into my buy at 3:54pm.  The problem happened shortly after that when my correlating currencies stopped lining up and started doing their own thing.  This left my totally guessing as to what my trade was going to do.  I decided to bail out and walked away with 1 pip.  The Euro kept going up a few more pips and I could have easily hit my target of 5 pips had I stayed in.  But that would have been me just hoping for blind luck.  Do you think the FOREX market gives two shits about helping out your trade?  Hell no!  It punishes wishful thinkers.  The reason I am still around while 95% of traders lose all their money is that I don’t guess.  I play very short term, low risk trades.  When everything stops lining up I bail.  Sometimes this means I miss out on more profit.  More often than not it means I limit my losses.  Here are the details.

Trade Summary:

Buy EUR/USD - 1.2959
Close Trade - 1.2960
Pips= 1

I made a very small trade last night.  It was a very small trade only because of the timing.  It wasn’t anything to do with timing in the market.  It was all about the fact that I had to study for two quizzes today in school.  I had been watching the EUR/USD setting up into a nice little pattern for me.  I was watching the clock cursing up a storm as I was really excited to get a positive trade in.  It finally formed for me at 8:37pm.  I was banking on a very quick upward movement off my lower barrier.  The barrier was tested but held fairly strong.  Unfortunately for me the trade took longer to get it’s momentum than I planned.  I decided to get out 3 minutes later when I was up 2 pips.  I really had to get going!  My initial goal was 10 pips for this trade because the setup was perfect for me.  Had I been able to wait another few minutes I would have been able to bag my 10 pips.  Hell, if I could have waited 10 minutes after that I may have had 20 pips!  By the chart, you can see that this thing really ran.  But, I would have walked away once I hit my target.  Oh well.  Beggars can’t be choosy.  I haven’t been trading too often lately so I am glad that my instincts are right.  I probably could have advised you on this trade a lot better than when I actually go to execute the thing myself.  Given the fact that I was also trying to study, 2 pips is not half bad.  I weighted this trade pretty heavy as well.  So, those 2 pips are a nice profit for me!  Here is the chart.

Trade Summary:

Buy EUR/USD - 1.2960
Close Trade - 1.2962
Pips= 2

This really is turning into a “no trade” blog instead of a day trade blog. This month has given me so many examples of when not to trade that I can’t help myself. I don’t want to break the rules that I preach by entering into trades that I wouldn’t advise you to get in. Yesterday was a perfect day not to trade for me. As I always say: I am sure many of you think I am fucking nuts for skipping out on such a large downward movement. I will reply as I always do: That isn’t part of my strategy! Yesterday the EUR/USD dropped 300 pips. My problem with trading that after hours is the reaction movements. Sure, it might just continue to trend down. Or, maybe a ton of positions are going to close out and we are going to see a pretty big rebound. Who knows!? I sure as hell don’t. It makes me nervous enough to skip it. I did set an upper barrier which I manually drew into the chart below later in the evening. I was thinking things would drop from there, although I wasn’t quite sure how far. I just hate trading when every downward movement gets you a new low for the day. I don’t like higher highs or lower lows in the evening. If I was trading in the middle of the day I would have jumped on this trade without hesitation. You can see the chart below to see what I am talking about. Who knows, maybe I will finally get to trade some time this year!

Yet another “no trade” post for you.  Hell, I might as well make this a blog all about not trading Forex.  There are a couple of reasons for me not trading.  The movement of the EUR/USD pair hasn’t been to my liking.  That isn’t the main reason though.  I have made money in worse conditions than this.  The main reason is that I am almost done my first week back at school and I have been obviously very distracted.  I totally forgot how expensive it is to be a student!  Paying for parking, paying for books, paying for class notes, paying bribes to get someone to complete your assignments, hiring thugs to rough up your teachers…wait…where was I going with that?  Oh yeah, the money.  I also had to buy a back pack to carry those expensive books around.  I made an extra little purchase for myself this week, I bought some new running shoes.  Part of this fire fighter pre-service program is fitness.  I decided that if I was going to survive I need to start running regularly.  So, I got some new Nike’s for my precious feet.  I always used to get knee pain when I ran.  I have hit the treadmill 3 times with these new shoes and I haven’t had a problem.  They are lighter too, which is a bonus.  This week has been all about spending money and not making money.  No worries, there will be plenty of time to make trades once I am settled in to this course.  I did take a look at the charts yesterday and didn’t like what I saw.  The spread was fairly high and the movement seemed like a steady rise.  I know it would seem like a no brainer to buy the Euro at that point.  As I have mentioned before, I play small movements in ranges.  I don’t do steady rises…lord knows when the thing might turn on you.  The best I could see at the end of the day was a rough channel.  And by rough I mean ROUGH.  This thing is ugly for a channel and certainly wasn’t true enough for me to trust it.  I assumed the upward movement was stronger than this channel.  Below are two charts proving I was right.  The first is at 10:20pm when I thought about the channel being an option, but then ignored it for the above reasons.  The next chart was about 20 minutes later.  I was right, the Euro broke through the top of that shitty channel.  Which didn’t surprise me at all because it wasn’t a true channel.  So many patterns can easily be thrown onto a chart and modified to tell you what you want to hear.  If you manipulate the forms then you might as well go in blind.  I stayed out and it proved to be the right call.

*that was the 1st chart, and now the 2nd…